ECONOMY OF LITHUANIA
Overview: Since independence in September 1991, Lithuania has made steady progress
in developing a market economy. Almost 50% of state property has been privatized
and trade is diversifying with a gradual shift away from the former Soviet
Union to Western markets. In addition, the Lithuanian government has adhered
to a disciplined budgetary and financial policy which has brought inflation
down from a monthly average of around 14% in first half 1993 to an average
of 3.1% in 1994. Nevertheless, the process has been painful with industrial
output in 1993 less than half the 1991 level. The economy appeared to have
bottomed out in 1994, and Vilnius's policies have laid the groundwork for
vigorous recovery over the next few years. Recovery will build on Lithuanian's
strategic location with its ice-free port at Klaipeda and its rail and highway
hub in Vilnius connecting it with Eastern Europe, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine,
and on its agriculture potential, highly skilled labor force, and diversified
industrial sector. Lacking important natural resources, it will remain dependent
on imports of fuels and raw materials.
Lithuania has benefited from its disciplined approach to market reform and its adherence to
strict fiscal and monetary policies imposed by the IMF, measures that have helped constrain
the growth of the money supply, reduce inflation to 5.1%, and support GDP growth of 6% in 1997
and 4.5% in 1998. Foreign direct investment and the privatization program maintained their momentum
in 1998. However, the current account deficit has hovered around 8% to 10% of GDP annually since 1995—the
result of greater demand for consumer goods and falling growth in exports. Reducing this deficit is
the immediate economic challenge for 1999.
Lithuania has conducted the most trade with Russia, faced its own
economic and financial crisis in 1999 as a result of the government's wrongfooted economic
policies and its inadequate response to the August 1998 Russian financial crisis. Preliminary
figures indicate 3% negative GDP growth, 10% unemployment - the highest level since
independence in 1991 - and a budget deficit estimated at between 8 and 9% of GDP. The
policies that Prime Minister KUBILIUS implemented upon taking the helm in November 1999
underscore a commitment to fiscal restraint, economic stabilization, and accelerated reforms.
The austere 2000 budget in based on a 2% GDP growth forecast, 3% inflation, and a 2.8% budget
deficit. Lithuania was invited at the Helsinki EU summit in December 1999 to begin EU accession
talks in early 2000. Privatization of the large state-owned utilities, particularly in the
energy sector, and reducing the high current account deficit remain challenges for the coming
year.
The year 2001 was a good one for the Lithuanian economy. The 5.9% growth in GDP
went beyond even the most optimistic expectations, despite the slower
developments in the neighboring markets after the September 11th terrorist
attacks in New York and Washington, D.C. The growth in Lithuania was mainly
driven by private consumption and exports. Growth was strongest in construction,
financial intermediation, and processing and light industries. Inflation was
low, the growth of the external account deficit stabilized, and the state
finances improved noticeably with a fiscal deficit of 1.5% of GDP. Exports
continued to be the driving force of Lithuania's economic growth. Recently, they
surpassed the pre-crisis levels ($3.7 billion in 1998 versus $4.6 billion in
2001). The contribution of domestic market oriented sectors, especially
construction, also was increasing. (For year 2001 forecast was 3.2% growth,
1.8% inflation, and a fiscal deficit of 3.3%.)
Lithuania's economic situation has continued to improve during the first two
quarters of 2002. During the first and second quarters of 2002, GDP grew at 4.4%
and 6.9%, respectively. Economic growth continued, and inflation was low.
Progress also was achieved in the areas of privatization and deregulation.
Weaknesses remain in public policy development and structural and agricultural
reforms.
On February 2, 2002, the government re-pegged the Litas from the U.S. dollar to
the Euro at the rate of 3.4528 Litas for 1 Euro. The re-peg, which went on
smoothly, reflects a change in trade orientation and is to help Lithuania
prepare for the European Monetary Union. However, with the appreciation of local
currency against the U.S. dollar, production costs of our enterprises have been
decreasing, and competitiveness increasing.
Lithuania's economic situation has continued to improve during the first two
quarters of 2002. During the first and second quarters of 2002, GDP grew at 4.4%
and 6.9%, respectively. Economic growth continued, and inflation was low.
Progress also was achieved in the areas of privatization and deregulation.
Weaknesses remain in public policy development and structural and agricultural
reforms.
GDP (2004 est.): $22.3 billion.
Annual GDP growth (2004 est.): 6.7%.
GDP per capita (2004 est.): $ 6,474.
Inflation (at the end of 2004): 2.9%.
Unemployment rate (2004 est.): 11.4%.
Major sectors of the economy: Manufacturing 20.8%, wholesale and retail trade 18.1 %, transport and communications 13.2%.
Trade: Exports-$9.28 billion (2004 est.): mineral products 25.2%, machinery and mechanical appliances 12.7%, textiles and textile articles 11.7%, wood and paper products 5%. Major export partners-Germany 10.2%, Latvia 10.1%, Russia 9.2%, France 6.3%. Imports-$12.35 billion (2004 est.): mineral products 19.7%, machinery and equipment 19%, transportation equipment 13.2%, chemicals 8.4%, base metals 7.2%, textiles and clothing 7%. Major import partners-Russia 22.9%, Germany 16.7%, Poland 7.3%, the Netherlands 4%.
Gross Domestic Product
| |
at
current prices, in mill. litas |
As
compared to previous year at constant prices of 2000 |
in mill. litas |
as compared to
previous period, growth, drop (-), % |
| 1990 |
134 |
63952 |
- |
| 1991 |
415 |
60322 |
-5.7 |
| 1992 |
3406 |
47498 |
-21.3 |
| 1993 |
11590 |
39791 |
-16.2 |
| 1994 |
16904 |
35905 |
-9.8 |
| 1995 |
25568 |
37086 |
3.3 |
| 1996 |
32290 |
38821 |
4.7 |
| 1997 |
39378 |
41541 |
7.0 |
| 1998 |
44377 |
44563 |
7.3 |
| 1999 |
43359 |
43810 |
-1.7 |
| 2000 |
45526 |
45526 |
3.9 |
| 2001 |
48879 |
48429 |
6.4 |
| 2002 |
51643 |
51704 |
6.8 |
| 2003* |
56179 |
56716 |
9.7 |
Unemployment rate (Average annual):
12.0% in 2004 (avg. I-III qtrs)
12.2% in 2003
11.3% in 2002
12.5% in 2001
11.5% in 2000
8.4% in 1999
6.4% in 1998
14.1% in 1997
16.4% in 1996
16.4% in 1995
Currency: introduced the convertible litas in June 1993
Exchange rates: 3.4528 LTL = 1 EUR (fixed 2 February 2002), litai per US$1 - 4 (fixed rate 1 May 1994)
Fiscal year: calendar year
* - provisional data
|